As the Bush administration tries to persuade America to convert
Social Security into a giant 401(k), we can learn a lot from other
countries that have already gone down that road.
Information about other countries' experience with privatization
isn't hard to find. For example, the Century Foundation, at
www.tcf.org, provides a
wide range of links.
Yet, aside from giving the Cato Institute and other organizations
promoting Social Security privatization the space to present upbeat
tales from Chile, the U.S. news media have provided their
readers and viewers with little information about international
experience. In particular, the public hasn't been let in on two open
secrets:
Privatization dissipates a large fraction of workers'
contributions on fees to investment companies.
It leaves many retirees in poverty.
Decades of conservative marketing have convinced Americans that
government programs always create bloated bureaucracies, while the
private sector is always lean and efficient. But when it comes to
retirement security, the opposite is true. More than 99 percent of
Social Security's revenues go toward benefits, and less than 1
percent for overhead. In Chile's system, management fees are around
20 times as high. And that's a typical number for privatized
systems.
These fees cut sharply into the returns individuals can expect on
their accounts. In
Britain, which has had a privatized system since the days of
Margaret Thatcher, alarm over the large fees charged by some
investment companies eventually led government regulators to impose
a "charge cap." Even so, fees continue to take a large bite out of
British retirement savings.
A reasonable prediction for the real rate of return on personal
accounts in the U.S. is 4 percent or less. If we introduce a system
with British-level management fees, net returns to workers will be
reduced by more than a quarter. Add in deep cuts in guaranteed
benefits and a big increase in risk, and we're looking at a "reform"
that hurts everyone except the investment industry.
Advocates insist that a privatized U.S. system can keep expenses
much lower. It's true that costs will be low if investments are
restricted to low-overhead index funds - that is, if government
officials, not individuals, make the investment decisions. But if
that's how the system works, the suggestions that workers will have
control over their own money - two years ago, Cato renamed its
Project on Social Security Privatization by replacing
"privatization" with "choice" - are false advertising.
And if there are rules restricting workers to low-expense
investments, investment industry lobbyists will try to get those
rules overturned.
For the record, I don't think giving financial corporations a
huge windfall is the main motive for privatization; it's mostly an
ideological thing. But that windfall is a major reason Wall Street
wants privatization, and everyone else should be very suspicious.
Then there's the issue of poverty among the elderly.
Privatizers who laud the Chilean system never mention that it has
yet to deliver on its promise to reduce government spending. More
than 20 years after the system was created, the government is still
pouring in money. Why? Because, as a Federal Reserve study puts it,
the Chilean government must "provide subsidies for workers failing
to accumulate enough capital to provide a minimum pension." In other
words, privatization would have condemned many retirees to dire
poverty, and the government stepped back in to save them.
The same thing is happening in Britain. Its Pensions Commission
warns that those who think Mrs. Thatcher's privatization solved the
pension problem are living in a "fool's paradise." A lot of
additional government spending will be required to avoid the return
of widespread poverty among the elderly - a problem that Britain,
like the U.S., thought it had solved.
Britain's experience is directly relevant to the Bush
administration's plans. If current hints are an indication, the
final plan will probably claim to save money in the future by
reducing guaranteed Social Security benefits. These savings will be
an illusion: 20 years from now, an American version of Britain's
commission will warn that big additional government spending is
needed to avert a looming surge in poverty among retirees.
So the Bush administration wants to scrap a retirement system
that works, and can be made financially sound for generations to
come with modest reforms. Instead, it wants to buy into failure,
emulating systems that, when tried elsewhere, have neither saved
money nor protected the elderly from poverty.
E-mail: krugman@nytimes.com